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The Macquarie Q3 forecast calls for 6% growth in US online sports betting revenue. Also, it forecasts 18% growth for iGaming, the industry term for online casino games. Its analysts shared both figures in an October 7, 2026 note ahead of earnings season.
However, the same note cut price targets on DraftKings and FanDuel owner Flutter. Casino US explains what the forecast means for fans of sports betting in the US.
Key Numbers in the Macquarie Q3 Forecast
Here is what the bank expects and what drives each number.
| Metric | Forecast | Main Driver |
| Sports betting revenue (GGR) | +6% year over year | Strong July and September |
| iGaming revenue | +18% (+12% in existing states) | Steady online casino growth |
| August handle | -1% year over year | Gap between World Cup and football |
| Sportsbook hold | Roughly flat | A wash overall, despite a New York decline |
| Prediction market volume (September) | About $19 billion (+1,035%) | NFL and college football kickoff |
All figures are Macquarie estimates, not reported results. Gross gaming revenue (GGR) is what operators keep after paying winners. Handle is the total amount wagered, and hold is the share of handle a sportsbook keeps.
How the World Cup and NFL Shaped the Quarter
The sports calendar explains most of the Q3 swing. First, July got a strong lift from the FIFA World Cup, which the US co-hosted. Then August cooled off, and handle slipped 1%.
Next, September recovered once football returned. DraftKings reported double-digit September volume growth, driven by NFL and college football betting. Because of this, one soft month rarely changes the full-year picture.
Why DraftKings and Flutter Price Targets Dropped
A price target is an analyst’s 12-month value estimate for a stock. Macquarie lowered DraftKings to $34 from $38 and Flutter to $128 from $150. Specifically, the bank pointed to heavier spending on prediction markets and a small dip in sportsbook win rates.
That said, the Macquarie Q3 forecast stays positive. Although gaming shares lost 22% over three months, its 2026 and 2027 estimates held flat. Notably, its top online picks are Flutter plus two data suppliers, Genius Sports and Sportradar.
Why Prediction Markets Matter So Much
Prediction markets are the biggest wild card in the Macquarie Q3 forecast. These platforms let users buy yes-or-no contracts on events. Taker volume, the value of trades placed against existing prices, drives the fees these exchanges earn.
Volume hit $4.3 billion in September’s first week with no NFL games. Then it set an $802 million daily record on opening NFL Sunday. Additionally, Macquarie sees Kalshi controlling roughly 70% of September activity.
New entrants keep arriving, as the ProphetX approval for US prediction markets shows. Here is how the two compare.
| Feature | Sportsbook | Prediction Market |
| How you bet | Against odds the book sets | Trade contracts with other users |
| How the operator earns | Hold built into the odds | Fees on each trade |
| Who regulates it | State gaming regulators | Federal regulator (CFTC), but several states challenge sports contracts |
| Where it is available | Only in legal betting states | Most states, though some courts limit sports contracts |
Since rules shift often, check state gambling laws before using either option.
What the Macquarie Q3 Forecast Means for US Bettors
For players, the bank’s outlook points to a busy, competitive fall:
- Watch for richer sign-up offers as prediction apps and sportsbooks compete for customers.
- Check wagering requirements, the amount you must bet before cashing out bonus winnings.
- Compare odds across apps, because hold rates differ by sportsbook and state.
- Confirm a platform is licensed or approved in your state before depositing.
A common mistake is reading a price cut as a warning about a sportsbook’s safety. Stock targets track investor value, not player balances. Our DraftKings Sportsbook review covers what matters, like withdrawals and app quality.
Similarly, the FanDuel Sportsbook review tracks promo rules and payout times, not share prices. Finally, football season makes overspending easy, so set limits with responsible gambling tools.
The Bottom Line on the Macquarie Q3 Forecast
Overall, the Macquarie Q3 forecast points to steady sportsbook growth, strong iGaming gains, and booming prediction markets. While stock targets fell, the betting market looks healthy heading into earnings. Casino US tracks every report in its latest gambling industry news as results arrive.
