Kate | January 1, 2023 | Updated on: September 30th, 2024
The concept of roulette expected value is important in understanding what you stand to lose or gain in a game of roulette. Ever wondered how much money you can lose when playing roulette? If your answer is yes to this question, we will help you understand the concept of roulette expected value.
It’s all great when you are winning but losing is another story. Almost all of the wagers on a roulette table have the same expected value. It is the main reason why we say that calculating the potential value in roulette is simple.
Another point is that roulette is not complicated. For example, players can make a single bet, the wheel spins and you get you a payout if you win.
The good news is that if you are familiar with roulette, you can immediately get started with calculations. We recommend that you know what the game is all about before taking this step.
As you go through the roulette expected value guide, you see other roulette types. There are methods we will show you how to analyze the probability. Go on, more below!
Expected Value in Roulette
It only becomes difficult to calculate the expected value in roulette if players don’t have all the data. The right information will assist players to sum up their expected value. That’s why we say that for most wagers, calculating your expected value is easy.
Possible value requires players to do estimation and some maths. For instance, a player A flips a coin with player B. In this situation the payouts are not fair. Let’s say player A makes a $10 wager on each flip, and player B bets $11.
Do you know what the expected value is for player A? There is a 50% chance of winning which means player A will win $11. When we multiply the numbers the total will be $5.50. Also, the first player (A) will lose half of the time.
This means that the player will lose $10 every time. So, when we say $10 X 5 = $5.50. What’s more, you can take those two amounts, subtract the average loss from the average win to get the expected value of $0.50 on every flip. The calculation will be as follows; ($11 x .5) – ($10 x.5) = $0.50.
European Roulette expected Value
When it comes to European roulette nearly all wager has the same house edge. Let’s explain what we mean. For example, players bet on one digit. If this bet wins, it will payout 35-1.
Nonetheless, there is just a single winning result out of the possible 37. The odds of winning on one spin are 1/37 or 2.70%. While the chances of losing on any spin are 36/37 or 97.30.
This is how the calculations look: (35 x 027) – (1 x 973)946 – 973 = 0.027.
It can be expressed as a percentage value of 2.7%. We rounded off the figures above. The casino gets its advantage from the zero. This possible value is the same on every wager.
American Roulette Expected Value
The possible value is to some degree more for the casino in US roulette. This is because although the payouts are the same, there is an extra digit on the wheel (00). At times, this intimidates players. For example, the payout is identical which is 35-2, the chances of winning are lower.
The main reason is that there is one winner out of 38 digits. On the other hand, players will lose 37 times out of 38. It might look small but has a huge impact on the expected value.
The calculation: (35 x 0263) – (1×9737). 921-947 =-0.053. The edge of the casino is 5.3%. The possible value is more than this, we rounded off the figure. The house edge is closer to 5.26%.
This is the same as 2/38. See, it is nearly double the house edge as the European game. So, the European roulette is a better option compared to American.
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