Underdog Sues Tennessee Over Prediction Markets
Alex Harper • Oct 19, 2026 This guide unpacks the numbers, why they matter to US bettors and how to vet any prediction market yourself.
Key Insights: ADI Predictstreet Trading Claims
The ADI Predictstreet trading claims rest on open blockchain records, not on any regulator’s ruling.
- Close to two-thirds of all volume up to late September traces back to wallets with apparent company ties
- One wallet both bankrolled those accounts and takes in the fees on each trade
- Gibraltar’s regulator says an early check found no breach of its self-trading ban
- The records don’t reveal who ran those wallets or what they wanted
What the WSJ Found in ADI Predictstreet Trading Data
The WSJ report covers every ADI Predictstreet trade between the April launch and late September. It builds on work from three Harvard students, who traced the money through public blockchain records of every crypto transfer.
| Measure | Figure | What It Shows |
| Total volume, April to late September | $167 million | Every trade it recorded |
| Volume tied to the wallet network | Roughly $108 million | Close to 65 cents of each dollar |
| Wallets in the network | 795 | Each one got funds from the fee wallet |
| Network share since late August | 99% | Hardly any outside activity |
| Top two wallets in the tournament | Over $81 million | Most of it swapped between the pair |
Overall, the WSJ read this as a sign that few real outside traders were using the platform.
What Circular Trading Means for Prediction Markets
Circular trading means a ring of linked accounts passes the same money around, so it ends where it started. It’s a close cousin of wash trading, and both can make a quiet market look busy.
Prediction markets turn real events, like a World Cup final, into contracts that pay if your pick wins. They work much like soccer betting odds, but other traders set the price instead of a bookmaker. So if one group makes most trades, the price may not reflect real opinion.
Volume also hints at liquidity, meaning how fast you can enter or leave a bet near a fair price. As a result, fake volume can leave you stuck in a position you can’t exit.
Still, the WSJ findings don’t prove ADI Predictstreet broke any rules or set out to fool traders.
How Gibraltar and FIFA Have Responded
Andrew Lyman, who runs gambling oversight in Gibraltar, said an early check showed the platform stayed inside local rules. Those rules ban self-trading, where one party acts as buyer and seller at once.
However, the fast setup has drawn questions since spring. Company records show a March 17 start date. A Gibraltar license followed nine days after that, then the FIFA deal on April 2.
FIFA promised live monitoring for suspicious trades, yet it’s unclear if those checks ever caught these wallets. Meanwhile, FIFA chose not to comment, and ADI Predictstreet gave the paper no reply.
Why ADI Predictstreet Matters to US Bettors
ADI Predictstreet reached US customers via Fanatics Markets, which hosted a shared World Cup page across 23 states. Kalshi also signed a branding deal with it on June 26, and neither side has said if that tie-up continues.
Federal oversight for Kalshi comes from the CFTC, the US agency that polices futures and event contracts. In contrast, ADI Predictstreet’s only license comes from Gibraltar. More event-contract platforms keep arriving as federal approvals open the US market.
Even so, regulated venues still face integrity checks, such as a review of suspicious Kalshi bets earlier this month.
Four Checks Before You Put Money on a Prediction Platform
These steps show whether activity looks real, whether you’re eyeing ADI Predictstreet or a newer rival.
- Name the regulator, then look up the license on that regulator’s own site.
- Compare reported volume with how many traders actually show up in each market.
- Look at the spread, the distance between what buyers offer and sellers want; a wide spread usually signals thin interest.
- Keep early stakes small and cap deposits with responsible gambling tools before you place a single trade.
The same warning signs, such as vague licensing and missing company details, show up at unreliable online gambling sites too.
Where ADI Predictstreet Goes From Here
Gibraltar’s look at the platform is only a first pass, so treat headline volume on any new market with caution.
If you want clear rules, most state-licensed US sportsbooks answer to a state gaming board. If gambling starts costing more than you planned, the free 1-800-GAMBLER helpline answers 24/7.
