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Alex Harper • Sep 30, 2026 
Reviewed By Paul Jacobs
Casino Expert
The MGM prediction markets plan died in 2025, and Caesars Entertainment won’t launch one either. Both CEOs gave their reasons at G2E, the Las Vegas gaming trade show held September 28 to October 1. The short version: entering could put their state gaming licenses at risk.
For US bettors, it draws a clear line between state-licensed sportsbooks and event contract platforms that answer to federal regulators.
Why the MGM Prediction Markets Plan Ended
At G2E, Bill Hornbuckle explained that MGM explored a prediction markets product early in 2025. The likely route was the BetMGM sportsbook, which MGM co-owns. However, MGM dropped the plan after Nevada’s gaming regulators warned it could affect the company’s license.
Hornbuckle also questioned age limits. Many prediction platforms accept users from 18, while sportsbooks and casinos set the bar at 21 in most states. That said, the legal gambling age by state still varies for lotteries and horse racing.
Why Caesars Is Staying Out Too
Caesars CEO Tom Reeg reached the same answer and called for stronger guardrails. Notably, he flagged a market that let traders bet on a 2026 sale of Caesars itself.
That market tracked Fertitta Entertainment’s pending takeover of Caesars. Reeg said the platform’s rules didn’t stop a company insider like him from buying in. By contrast, state rules generally bar insiders from betting on outcomes they can influence.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets let you buy yes-or-no contracts on future events. For example, a contract might ask whether a team wins on Sunday. Right calls pay out, and wrong ones lose your stake.
The platforms call these products event contracts. Kalshi and Polymarket say they’re financial products overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As a result, they argue they can operate nationwide, even where sports betting is illegal.
State regulators disagree. In their view, a contract on a game result works just like a sports bet. The sector keeps growing anyway, with new operators such as ProphetX winning CFTC approval in June.
Why Gaming Licenses Outweigh a New Revenue Stream
A gaming license gives a company the right to run casinos or sportsbooks in a state. Lose one, and regulators elsewhere may start asking questions.
Between them, the two companies run 17 Las Vegas Strip resorts. Caesars also runs casinos in Reno and Laughlin, tying it closer to Nevada’s casino market. Online, BetMGM and Caesars rank third and fifth among US sportsbooks by revenue share.
They also run four of Atlantic City’s nine casinos. That puts both companies under New Jersey’s gambling laws, and the state is fighting sports event contracts in court.
Meanwhile, Arizona moved in December 2025 to revoke Underdog’s fantasy sports license over its prediction markets deal with Crypto.com. Underdog didn’t even offer those markets in Arizona. With that much at stake, the MGM prediction markets idea had little room to survive.
Licensed Sportsbooks vs Prediction Markets at a Glance
Here’s how the two models compare.
| Feature | State-licensed sportsbook | Prediction market |
| Regulator | State gaming regulators | The CFTC (federal) |
| Minimum age | 21 in most states | 18 on some platforms |
| Availability | Only in states that legalize it | Nationwide, platforms claim; states dispute this |
| State gaming tax | Yes | Platforms say no; the AGA objects |
| Player protections | Set by state regulators | Mostly each platform’s own tools |
If you want local oversight, licensed US sportsbooks remain the only option backed by state regulators.
What This Means for You as a US Bettor
The MGM prediction markets decision changes nothing at BetMGM or Caesars Sportsbook.
- Look for a state regulator’s name in the site footer before you deposit.
- Check the age rule, since 18+ platforms still face legal challenges in some states.
- Compare player protections like deposit limits and responsible gambling tools, not just prices.
- Watch the courts, since cases in New Jersey and other states could reshape the rules.
The Bigger Fight Behind the MGM Prediction Markets Decision
American Gaming Association (AGA) head Bill Miller said platforms sidestep some state taxes, licensing, and responsible gaming duties. In response, Kalshi and Polymarket point to their CFTC status as permission to offer contracts in every state.
Courts will likely settle this, not CEOs. Until then, the MGM prediction markets plan stays shelved, and Caesars sticks with its licensed resorts and betting apps. For bettors, a state license stays the clearest sign of who answers to a regulator.
